The fragile ceasefire involving the United States, Israel and Iran is already under pressure, with both sides accusing each other of violations, according to 7NEWS.
The temporary truce initially helped calm global oil markets. Prices began to ease as tensions reduced and the key Strait of Hormuz reopened to shipping. However, damaged infrastructure and ongoing fears in the market mean fuel prices are expected to remain high for months.
Although fuel prices started to stabilise after earlier sharp increases, energy experts say the situation is still uncertain. High shipping insurance costs and damage to oil facilities are likely to keep prices above pre-conflict levels.
Experts also warn that the ceasefire remains fragile. The risk of renewed conflict is still high, limiting how much fuel prices can drop.
If the ceasefire collapses, the situation could worsen quickly. Israel may target Iranian energy facilities, while Iran has threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. This could disrupt global oil supply, affect trade, and increase the risk of a wider regional war.
According to the World Bank, a breakdown in the ceasefire could lead to serious economic disruption, including higher fuel prices and slower global trade.
For Sierra Leone, the impact could be severe. As a country that depends fully on imported fuel, any disruption in global supply could lead to sharp price increases and shortages.
After a brief drop during the April 2026 ceasefire, fuel prices could rise again. Petrol and diesel had already reached around NLe32 per litre earlier this year.
A renewed blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could make it difficult for importers to secure fuel supplies, leading to shortages in the country.
The Government of Sierra Leone has also warned that it may not be able to continue fuel subsidies. This means any increase in global prices could be passed directly to consumers, putting more pressure on the cost of living.
